Today is the 140th running of the Preakness Stakes. For those of you who don’t know anything about Horse Racing this is the perfect place to start learning. So, let’s sink our teeth into the analysis!
Below is the field and morning lines provided by Pimlico.com The Preakness is the second race of the Triple Crown, which is raced at the Pimlico Track located in Baltimore, MD. Post time for Race 13 is estimated to be at 6:18pm so make sure you place all your bets before then. In case you didn’t know the Preakness is 9 1/2 Furlongs which is 1/2 a Furlong shorter than the Kentucky Derby.
What is a Furlong you say? A Furlong is 660 feet, 220 yards, and 1/8 of a mile. So, for all you math whizzes out there 8 Furlongs equals to 1 mile.
Before we start with the analysis check out the chart below for an idea of how much a $2 bet to Win pays out on the odds listed below
The Field In Post Position Order
#1 American Pharoah
Trainer Bob Baffert has won the Preakness five times with Derby runners, and is 3 for 3 with his Derby winners at Pimlico, however American Pharoah would need to overcome the odds from starting out of gate #1. Since 1961 only one horse (Tabasco Cat in 1994) has won the Preakness from this infamous post position 1. The last horse to have won the Derby and drew 1st post position in the Preakness was Orb in 2013 and with 1-1 odds of winning the Preakness Orb fell short finishing 4th. American Pharoah is the favorite in this race and if he can go straight into the lead out of the gate we can very well see him take the second jewel of the Triple Crown, and the possibility of a wet track only helps him to his favor since he is the only horse that has won from a wet dirt track.
Also trained by Bob Baffert, Dortmund has 7-2 odds going into the big race today. Two of the 3 top finishers that ran the Derby are now racing from the toughest post positions. The last horse to have won from #2 post was Snow Chief in 1986. Baffert has 10 victories in Triple Crown races, and none of those are with horses who started on the rail. Dortmund is a descendent of the 2008 Kentucky Derby Winner and Preakness Winner, Big Brown. Dortmund is a big horse and fast too! From all the other horses in this race, Dortmund and Firing Line both have the fastest 1 1/16 mile (8.5 Furlong) times with 1:40. They both raced at Los Alamitos on December 14, 2014 were Dortmund just edged out Firing Line for the win. Below is a picture of Dortmund and Firing Line what a size difference!
#3 Mr. Z
Mr. Z ran in the Kentucky Derby with 50-1 odds out of post position 17 and finished 13th overall. He was checked repeatedly early in the race and never recovered from it. Mr. Z has not won a race since his debut last back June 2014 and has raced 12 more races since then Placing 4 times and Showing 4 times. His odds today are 20-1.
#4 Danzig Moon
Danzig Moon is another horse that ran in the Derby and that is also running in the Preakness. Racing in the Derby Danzig Moon started in the 5th post position and finished 5th. His odds at the Derby were 30-1. Danzig Moon has only Won one race this year and that was a 1 mile (8 Furlong) race at Gulfstream Park on February 7th, 2015. Danzig Moon has never earned a triple-digit BRIS Speed rating and has had a difficult time proving he’s a top contender. However, Danzig Moon is a well-bred colt descending from A.P. Indy, Seattle Slew, and Northern Dancer. He is a young firing horse and may not see his best until further down the road.
#5 Tale of Verve
Do not discount Tale of Verve. This is a horse that did not race in the Kentucky Derby and is the only horse in the field to have run in a 1 3/16 (9.5 Furlongs) race, the same distance as the Preakness, and Won back on April 23rd, 2015 with Joel Rosario. Joel Rosario came in 2nd last year at the Preakness with Ride on Curlin who had 10-1 odds and will be riding Tale of Verve this year. Tale of Verve has not been raced since then April 23rd, 2015 and is one out of 3 other horses that have not been raced in over 20 days. The other two horses are Bodhisattva and Divining Rod.
Is the only horse in the field to have raced at Pimlico and Won back on April 18th and has not raced since then. In that raced Bodhisattva started from post position 6 and after the first turn set the tempo and kept the lead for the remainder of the race. If you want to make money by using American Pharoah, factor Bodhisattva in for your trifectas. This is the first triple Crown race for both trainer Jose Corrales and jockey Trevor McCarthy, but they have been dynamite together, winning eight of their last 17 races together, including three of seven at Pimlico, according to the Daily Racing Form.
#7 Divining Rod
From post position 7, a post position that was last won by Lookin At Luck in 2010, Divining Rod’s odds are 12-1. He is the most rested horse of the field and sired by Tapit who was the Leading U.S.- based sire by gross, average and median earnings in 2013. Divining Rod Won his last race back on April 11th, 2015, will he keep his streak alive today?
#8 Firing Line
From the last post position in this 8 horse race you have Firing Line with 4-1 odds. Firing Line started from the outside during the Kentucky Derby, post position 10, and finished 2nd, one length behind American Pharoah. Firing Line will be jocked by Gary Stevens again who Won the Preakness in 2013 with 15-1 odds Oxbow, beating out the 1-1 favorite Orb who had the first post position in the Preakness and was also a horse that had an outside post position in the Derby just like American Pharoah. This is one horse that consistently is either taking First or Second and has never came in 3rd in the 6 races of his career. Firing Line lost to Dortmund by a head twice early in his career and then handily beat him out for second in the Derby.